The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to cut the repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5% was contrary to the expectations of many economists. Firstly, most of the economists expected the MPC to cut the repo rate by 25 bps citing the weakening of inflation, prospects of economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and comfortable system liquidity.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) does not target any price level on the rupee, Governor Sanjay Malhotra reiterated at an International Monetary Fund and World Bank event on Wednesday.
Titan, HCL Tech and State Bank of India were also among the laggards. However, Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, HDFC Bank and ITC were the gainers.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data announcements and global trends are the key factors that would dictate the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said.
'...not merely in managing fiscal mathematics, but in demonstrating conservatism and prudence within that framework.' 'Looking forward, we believe sufficient growth drivers exist -- ranging from government reforms to revival in consumption to favourable monsoons. Numerous factors support the Indian economy.'
GST Reform 2.0, which trims tax slabs from four to two, signals a push for demand-led growth, and together with recent income tax cuts, sets the stage for sustained economic growth, experts said. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council on September 3 approved an overhaul of the indirect tax regime by taxing essentials at 5 per cent and other goods at 18 per cent. A new 40 per cent tax will be applicable on luxury and sin items.
Foreign investors continue to show confidence in the country's equity market, infusing Rs 18,620 crore so far this month, driven by a combination of global tailwinds and improving domestic fundamentals. This positive momentum follows a net investment of Rs 4,223 crore in April, marking the first inflow in three months, data with the depositories showed.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday said India has a lower overall exposure to the US relative to others in the APAC region, although certain sectors such as food, textiles and pharmaceutical products face risks. Moody's said most companies in its rated portfolio are domestic-focused with limited exposure to the US market.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
If Xi Jinping is dethroned in the future, the instrument for that may well be embedded within the PLA, notes former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
While the new income tax law replaces the Income Tax Act, 1961 and omits 13 offences, 35 actions and omissions continue to attract criminal liability under 13 provisions.
Facing criticism from the government over the central bank prioritising inflation over growth, the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Monday said that prospects of the Indian economy are expected to improve on the back of high consumer and business confidence in 2025. "As we strive to preserve financial stability to support a higher growth path for the Indian economy, our focus remains steadfast on maintaining stability of financial institutions and, more broadly, systemic stability," Malhotra said in foreword to the Financial Stability Report.
Benchmark Sensex advanced 110 points in a choppy trade on Wednesday, extending its gains to the fourth day in a row helped by buying in HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and fresh foreign fund inflows. The 30-share barometer rose by 110.58 points or 0.14 per cent to settle at 80,956.33 with 14 of its constituents ending with gains and 16 stocks with losses. During the day, it jumped 399.64 points or 0.49 per cent to 81,245.39 and dipped to a low of 80,630.53.
Shaktikanta Das will demit the office on Tuesday after completing six years as the 25th Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra will replace him as the 26th Governor. He was appointed as the Governor on December 12, 2018, after the abrupt exit of Urjit Patel.
The RBI on Wednesday cautioned that while the Indian economy appears capable of weathering the deterioration in geopolitical conditions amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, it faces headwinds from global spillovers from geopolitical tensions, elevated commodity prices and moderating external demand. The RBI, however, did not tinker with the GDP growth projection made in April. It had slashed the GDP growth projection for the fiscal 2022-23 to 7.2 per cent from its earlier forecast of 7.8 per cent.
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
Even as the high inflation figure for October has ruled out any possibility of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) in December, a rate cut in February also looks uncertain due to global uncertainties. Economists told Business Standard that unless domestic growth slows markedly, the outlook on rate cut remains unclear. India's headline inflation touched a 14-month high of 6.2 per cent in October, breaching the MPC's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent.
Sanjay Malhotra takes charge as the 26th RBI governor at a time when headline retail inflation has shot up to 6.2%.
A day after his appointment as the 26th governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), outgoing Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on Tuesday said one must understand the economic landscape and do what was best for the economy. "Let me first go, join, understand the turf ... Here it is a different role," Malhotra said, speaking to reporters in front of North Block.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel began its three-day deliberations on Monday to decide the next monetary policy amid expectations that the central bank will maintain status quo on the benchmark interest rate in the backdrop of global scare due to the new coronavirus variant Omicron. Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to announce the policy resolution on Wednesday. If the RBI maintains status quo in policy rates on Wednesday, it would be the ninth consecutive time since the rate remains unchanged.
'Other sectors that manage the savings pools of Indians are giving tough competition to life insurance companies.'
What appeared to be a generous act of friendship was, in truth, a manoeuvre within a much larger strategic game. The United States used the 1962 war not just to aid India but to test how far it could be pulled into the Western fold, points out Dr Kumar.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The RBI under former governor Shaktikanta Das resisted pressures to cut interest rates through 2024 as it kept its 'Arjuna's eye' trained on inflation, but the central bank under a new detail-oriented head will soon have to take a call if it can continue sacrificing growth. Das, a career bureaucrat who in 2016 oversaw Prime Minister Narendra Modi's highly disruptive demonetisation move, left a lasting legacy as he demitted office towards the end of 2024 after expertly navigating monetary policy for six years, the highlight of which was steering India's recovery through the pandemic.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections to 6.5 per cent for the next fiscal as it expects that economies in the APAC region will feel the strain of rising US tariffs and pushback on globalisation. In its Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC), S&P said despite these external strains, it expects domestic demand momentum to remain solid in most emerging-market economies.
Analysts expect Nifty to rise up by to 6 per cent in six months, with intermittent corrections likely due to global factors.
To those who ask, "Is all this really worth it? Why can't domestic demand fill the gap?", it is important to remind them that only 13 economies since the Second World War have grown at 7 per cent or more for 25 years -- like India needs to. They all had one thing in common: Strong export growth underpinned by strong global engagement, explains Sajjid Z Chinoy.
As a protege of Shinzo Abe, Takaichi is expected to scale bilateral ties much higher. Trade and investment shall grow. People-to-people contacts shall be scaled up, points out Dr Rajaram Panda.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday retained India's growth forecast at 6.8 per cent for the current fiscal and said it expects the RBI to start cutting interest rates in its October monetary policy review. In the economic outlook of Asia Pacific, S&P Global Ratings also retained its GDP growth forecast for the 2025-26 fiscal at 6.9 per cent and said solid growth in India will allow the Reserve Bank to focus on bringing inflation in line with its target.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday retained its projection for retail inflation at 4.5 per cent for the current fiscal assuming a normal monsoon, while emphasising that uncertainties related to food price outlook warrant a close monitoring. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation has been projected at 4.5 per cent with quarter-wise projections at 4.9 per cent in Q1 (April-June), 3.8 per cent in Q2, 4.6 per cent in Q3, and 4.5 per cent in Q4.
In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained GDP growth forecast of 7 per cent for 2024-25 financial year, lower than the 7.6 per cent expansion estimated for FY24. In its February monetary policy, the RBI had projected the GDP growth rate of 7 per cent for the financial year beginning April 1. Announcing the current fiscal's first bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the rural demand is gathering pace, and sustained growth in manufacturing sector should boost private investment.
Led by a sharper-than-expected deceleration in industrial activity, economic growth in India slowed more than anticipated and is projected to remain at 6.5 per cent till 2026, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday. "Growth in India slowed more than expected, led by a sharper-than-expected deceleration in industrial activity," the IMF said in its latest update of the World Economic Outlook, according to which the global economy is holding steady. In 2023, India's growth rate was 8.2 per cent, which dropped to 6.5 per cent in 2024.
Fundraising via initial public offers (IPOs) dropped 52.2 per cent to $147.2 billion in the first eight months of calendar year 2023 (CY23), suggests a recent report by GlobalData, a London-based analytics and consulting company. At the country level, the report suggests, India topped the charts with 152 transactions worth $3.8 billion during this period, primarily due to a higher number of SME IPOs, followed by the US with 99 deals totaling $16 billion, while China ranked third with 88 transactions worth $32.3 billion. "An analysis of GlobalData's Deals Database reveals that there were 750 IPO listings registered with an aggregate deal value of $147.2 billion in the first eight months of 2023 on the stock exchanges worldwide.
The Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) has urged the Centre to provide immediate relief measures as the tariffs imposed by the United States have started hitting the industry. US tariffs of 50 per cent on Indian goods came into effect on August 27.
Stock markets will be driven by further developments on the US-China tariff war front along with quarterly earnings announcements from IT majors Wipro and Infosys in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also dictate market movement this week, experts noted.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for current fiscal year, from 6.5 per cent earlier, citing strong June quarter growth and domestic consumption-led demand.
State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Infosys, HCL Tech, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and NTPC were among the biggest laggards among Sensex shares. Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and ITC were among the gainers.
Stock markets would take cues from the biggest event of the week -- the US Fed interest rate decision, besides tracking the trends in global markets and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Last week, a heavy decline in smallcap, midcap firms, foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices in the international market dented investors' sentiments. Experts said equity markets may remain volatile in the near-term amid a host of global central bank's monetary policy decisions lined up during the week.
